Governments, businesses and communities are facing up to the reality of COVID-19. The short-term impacts on economic growth, business activity and individual behaviour are undeniable and, while the current consensus is for a rebound in the global economy in H2 2020, the exact trajectory is unknowable.
According to JLL, in the short term, the impact on global economic growth is undeniable, with those countries that are the most advanced in the outbreak already feeling the effects. At the time of writing, the consensus forecast is for a sharp shock to the global economy in the first half of 2020, followed by a bounce-back – reminiscent of the recovery after the SARS outbreak in 2003. Although the immediate hit to demand has been very evident in the retail and hospitality sectors, certain industries are more susceptible to the disruption of supply chains. Disruption has already started in sectors such as automotive, aviation, chemicals and consumer goods, and the full effects have yet to filter through. Conversely, pharmaceuticals and healthcare are most likely to experience a surge in demand.